Who’s Ahead in Texas Governor’s Race?

The Texas gubernatorial election is less than three weeks ahead and everything suggests that it will be a very close contest. FiveThirtyEight project has resealed a mashup of every serious poll since the start of the race and it shows how the preferences of the public have moved during these months. 

FiveThirtyEight started mashing up the polls in January, and the first date we can trace is January 25, when the difference between Abbott and Beto was around 11 points. Abbott had 48.6% and Beto had 37.2% of the intention of voting. The gap started to close in March when Abbott’s advantage became a one-digit number. The gap moved a lot during April but from late May, Beto started to move closer and closer to Abbott. Now, the difference between Abbott and Beto is just 7 points. 

Seven points may seem like a lot but Beto reduced almost by half the advantage Abbott had on him. Also, things have changed a lot since the start of the race. For instance, during the last period of fundraising, Beto outraised Abbott and reached the record amount for a Democrat in Texas of $25 million dollars.

The main issues that could swing voters or convince the undecided are the ones that generated clashes in the only face-to-face debate Beto and Abbott had. That is immigration, gun control, and abortion access.